2009 impact rookies - early peek at QBs

Written by: J Andersson

It’s very early but for those of you involved in dynasty or contract leagues it may be wise to cast an eye towards the future. A deep position in this years draft might be very thin in the coming year and so on.

Of course, there’s plenty of uncertainty as to what will happen during the 2009 college football season but I’ll give you my early thoughts on what you can expect to see be available in fantasy rookie drafts next year.

This series will cover all major fantasy football positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, DL, LB and DB).

I’ll start off with the five best quarterbacks and their fantasy football outlook.

Top 5 quarterbacks for 2009

1. Tim Tebow, 6-3 235, Florida (Junior)

Where will he be picked? I’d very be surprised if he wasn’t picked in the top 10.

Upside: Tim Tebow is just coming off a Heismann winning campaign and looks to be a quarterback with a strong arm that also can hurt you plenty with his legs. His athleticism is well above the average NFL quarterbacks and he is only a junior (but I’ll doubt he stays in school). He should be able to develop his passing skills further.

Downside: Is Tebow good enough as a passer to make it in the NFL? Is he good enough as a mobile quarterback? Will his dual-ability make him just sort of vanilla? There are questions as to whether an Urban Meyer coached QB with a great collegiate career will be able to translate well into the NFL (example Alex Smith). Further, there are questions as to whether a Florida QB will be able to make it in the pros. Several like Rex Grossman, Danny Wuerffel, Shane Matthews and Chris Leak have had their fair share of struggles to say the least.

FF outlook: I’m not too ecstatic about Tebow’s chances of bringing much to the owner drafting him. My main reason for that is that I don’t see one truly defined quality to his game. He’s not a great pro-style pocket passer and I’m not sure he’ll be a great mobile QB either. I think it’ll have to take time and someone has to be patient about letting him adjust to the pro game. Furthermore, chances are he’ll end up somewhere (Kansas City, Chicago) where the supporting cast can be called questionable. I would say the longer you could wait the more willing I would be to take a chance on Tebow. If you need immediate help I’m not sure this is where you want to go.

2. Sam Bradford, 6-4 214, Oklahoma (Sophomore)

Where will he be picked? Somewhere in the mid-first round.

Upside: Sam Bradford is just a sophomore but will be eligible for the 2009 draft. He may or may not declare for the draft, but if he does I’d expect him to be sitting very high on most teams draft boards. Bradford is an efficient passer that doesn’t make a lot of mistakes (something pro coaches and scouts will love). He seems very at ease despite his youth. He has near ideal size (could stand to bulk up some) and look to be a good fit as a pocket passer.

Downside: He hasn’t had a long career and the future is uncertain for young quarterbacks - the pro game and life as a pro may be overwhelming.

FF outlook: I think Bradford will be picked by a team where he could be brought in slowly behind a veteran. I could see teams like Tampa Bay, Detroit, St. Louis and Seattle fall in love with this kid as their future franchise quarterback. That would mean that Bradford might not play to big a role early on (unless the veteran in front of him gets injured) but by year two or three he might be well prepared. He would also be in a rather good surrounding when given the opportunity. I think Sam Bradford has a good chance to be hovering around the top 10 mark in FF scoring among QBs for years but it’ll take some time for him to see the field.

3. Matthew Stafford, 6-3 237, Georgia (Junior)

Where will he be picked? First round.

Upside: Matt Stafford has the best arm in this class, he can throw an absolute laser. Arm strength will be very important for success in the NFL and thus he might have a benefit over the others. He’s also played in a pro-style system at Georgia and took off some late last season. Might still develop as a college quarterback and has room to grow.

Downside: What scares me a bit with Stafford is that he’s had a relatively low completion percentage throughout his college career. He has also mixed fabulous throws with ugly throws for interceptions. That kind of inconsistency will not make him successful in the pros.

FF outlook: This is perhaps the biggest risk-reward guy out there. Laser arm but with a tendency to make poor decisions at times. I think situation will be key. If he’s taken by a team that look for him to carry them early in his career I see a potential disaster. If he ends up in a place where not many pieces are missing and he gets the opportunity to be more of a game manager early on, the risk very much lessens.

4. Curtis Painter, 6-4 223, Purdue (Senior)

Where will he be picked? Second round.

Upside: Painter is a very solid quarterback with ideal size and the right attributes (strong enough and accurate arm) to be successful at the next level. He has a lot of experience as a starter and has had reasonable success although his surrounding cast hasn’t been anything special. Good decision-maker.

Downside: Compared to the underclassmen above Painter appears a bit unspectacular and less athletic. He might not have a single quality about him that truly does separate him from the pack.

FF outlook: I very much like Painter in the right surrounding. If he’s afforded a good offensive line wherever he ends up, I think he may be one of the better quarterbacks from this group especially early on. Painter will be a pure pocket passer and could be a surprise that will fly under the radar. At this point, I see him as a great mid-round pick in rookie FF drafts. A very solid player. I don’t think he’ll ever be a top 5 quarterback for FF purposes but he might be solid enough to start and will come cheap.

5. Todd Boeckmann, 6-5 243, Ohio State (Senior)

Where will he be picked? Second to third round.

Upside: Boeckmann is a massive quarterback with a very good arm. He also appears athletic enough and could be called a poor mans Ben Roethlisberger. He stands tall in pocket and his game is constantly developing.

Downside: Still appears a bit rattled in the big games (had a pretty poor performance in the National championship game). Has limited experience and is somewhat raw.

FF outlook: I think Boeckmann might be a solid game managing quarterback. I don’t see him being a great FF quarterback in the closest future but in true dynasty leagues he might be worth a shot. The criticism directed towards Boeckmann for last years performance in the Nat’l championship is somewhat unfair. I would like to remind everyone that OSU was thought to have no chance whatsoever of getting to the big game after the departure of Troy Smith, Santonio Holmes and Ted Ginn among others. Boeckmann lead the offense to a very successful campaign and if he develops further he could be better FF wise than I’m lead to believe at this point.

Overall:

The class of 2008 did not have a candidate that truly did stand out. There’s tremendous bust potential even for the (thought to be) top QB in class, Matt Ryan. It isn’t a very deep class either.

The class of 2009 has more promise but it isn’t in my opinion a great class with several sure-fire first round picks either. That becomes especially true if Tim Tebow and/or Sam Bradford decided to stay in school for another year.

So what does this mean? I would say that if you’re in a position to pick a rookie quarterback you like in fantasy rookie drafts this year you might want to think about waiting until 2009 if you can. There’s a big chance there will be more upside to the options available next season.

On the other hand there are no sure fire NFL stars in the 2009 class either so the wait might be in vain. I think the bust potential on Matt Ryan and Chad Henne is significantly higher than the bust potential of Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford though, and if you count out the risk that you they might not be there to choose (if they stay in school, seems unlikely at this point) I think next year is a much better year to pick a quarterback for Fantasy Football purposes.

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