Following up my list of sleepers, this is a list of players that I feel will be overrated and taken too high in most drafts. Let others use higher draft picks for these guys, and wait and find more value.

Carlos Zambrano SP Chicago Cubs - We keep waiting for this huge breakout Cy Young award winning year from Big Z, and it just isn't coming. Zambrano's ERA rose half a point last year, he again walked over 100 batters, and even gave up 25 more hits last season. Did I mention that he also struck out 33 fewer batters as well. The innings have been piling up for Big Z, and although he is only 27, he has pitched over 200 innings five straight years. The other frustrating aspect concerning Zambrano is his inconsistancy. It's not worth a high draft choice.

Roy Oswalt SP Houston Oswalt's strikeouts declined for the third straight year, and his walks increased from 38 to 60 in fewer innings. He is 30 years old now, and his ERA and WHIP seem to tick up every season. He will still have a fine season, but don't overpay for him. He has pitched over 200 innings four straight seasons, and I happen to know that he was grossly over-used when he was younger.

Joe Blanton SP Oakland Don't let one season with an ERA under 4, or 30 wins over the past 2 seasons fool you. He is on a worse team than the past 2 seasons. He threw 230 innings last year, and started to wear down at the end (4.89 ERA .302 BA Against in his last 15 starts). I would expect an ERA around 4.50, 10 Wins, and 120 K's, nothing more.

Huston Street RP Oakland - As with Blanton, Street is on a worse team than the past couple of years. He has a higher ERA than the elite closers, and had some injury problems last season. He is undisputedly the closer, which counts for something, just don't take him too soon.

Brad Lidge RP Philadelphia - Lidge is a bit of an unknown. He will most likely start the season on the DL, which hurts his value some. He also carries a much higher ERA and WHIP than the elite closers. He can stil bring it though, and will definetly help you out in K's. Buyer Beware.

Francisco Cordero RP Cincinnati - Cordero was untouchable through early June (22 saves 0.37 ERA), but then the wheels kind of fell off, sort of like they did as he ran out of favor in Texas. From mid June-Sept. he blew 7 of 29 chances, and had an ERA of 4.66. He still finished with 44 saves, and put up nice strikeout numbers, but he is really a guy that is hard to trust. I wouldn't take him until at least 11 or 12 other closers are off the board.

Joe Borowski / Todd Jones - Both of these guys kind of fall in the same boat. Terrible ERA's, Terrible WHIP's, and don't strike anybody out. If you draft either of these guys, I would strongly recommend also taking Rafael Betancourt (CLE) and Fernando Rodney (DET), because both Borowski and Jones could be on thin ice this year.

Ivan Rodriguez C Detroit - Ivan's numbers fell in almost every category last season. He had his lowest OPS since 1992 (.714), only scored 50 runs, and is no longer a threat to steal bases. He is now 36 years old, and though his numbers could improve this season, he shouldn't be one of the first 10 catchers taken. Most people still see his name and make him the 7th or 8th taken, Don't be that guy.

Todd Helton 1B Colorado - Todd put up a pretty similar season last year as he did in 2006. He had a couple more home runs and RBI's, but his runs took a dip. He should have another season where he hits .300, but don't expect much more than 15 homeruns. I don't see Helton having enough value to be more than the 14th first baseman taken.

Dan Uggla 2B Florida - Uggla sometimes looks just down right ugly. He was second in the major leagues with 167 K's. No doubt, he will put up his power numbers, but is it really worth the low BA (.245), and no speed. He also loses Cabrera in that lineup, so his runs scored will take a dip, and if he hits in the middle of the lineup, he will see less quality pitches to hit. Expect a downturn in his numbers.

Dustin Pedroia 2B Boston - Dustin had a nice rookie season, earning him the AL Rookie of the year, but don't overpay for that. I have seen him taken as the 7th or 8th second baseman in some mock drafts. Although he will score runs and hit for a nice average, he won't hit more than 10 or 12 home runs, or drive in more than 65 runs. I'd rather wait and take a flier on Rickie Weeks, Aaron Hill, Orlando Hudson, Mark Ellis, Akinori Iwamura, Kelly Johnson, etc.) This is not as shallow of a position as some make it out to be.

Mike Lowell 3B Boston - Lowell had a career year last season, and earned himself a nice contract. He still scored less than 80 runs, and his batting average was 44 points higher than his career average, so you can expect a down tick there. He did have 120 RBI last year (40 above his 2006 total), but it would be very hard to expect him to hit .356 with runners on base again. All in all, I would expect a decrease in almost every category this season.

Orlando Cabrera SS Chicago White Sox - Cabrera is another guy coming off a career year, but, he does switch teams, which means Chone Figgins won't be on base for him (bye bye 80+ RBI's). He also shouldn't be expected to hit more than 8 home runs. He's not a bad player to have with his .285 average and 20 stolen bases, just don't draft him too early, or expect him to knock in or score as many runs as in '07.

Hideki Matsui OF New York Yankees - Godzilla turned in another respectable season last year, but he is now 34, and has been experiencing a lot of aches and pains. I would expect him to DH much more this season, and also get more days off. He will still put up respectable numbers; just don't over pay for them or the pinstripes on his back.

Hunter Pence OF Houston - Pence had a phenomenal rookie season. Hitting for average, power, and stealing some bases. He may very well improve on all those numbers and be a stud this year. But, I am not using a high draft pick on a player with less than a full season under his belt (unless it's Ryan Braun). Pence did strike out 95 times in 456 AB's, and now the scouts and pitchers have all seen him. I have seen Pence going way too high in most mock drafts, and although he could put up very nice numbers, he could also come back down to earth.

Aaron Rowand OF San Francisco - Rowand had a monster season last year, just in time to cash in on the big contract. But, he goes into a much worse lineup, and moves from a hitter's park to a pitcher's park. Not to mention, he put up career highs in almost every category last year. I would expect a huge downtrend from last year's numbers. .285 80 R 15 HR 70 RBI 10 SB are likely.

Chris Duncan OF St. Louis - Duncan has amazing power, and hits righties just fine. It is very easy to project out how many home runs Duncan would have over 550 AB's. The problem is, Duncan can't hit lefties (.209 Career), and is a liability defensively. Unless Pujols misses an extended period of time, and Duncan gets starts at first base, I can't see him getting more than 400 at bats.


Hope this helps some people out. Please add to the list, there are others that do belong here.